The Federal Government has warned that Nigeria is likely to experience warmer temperatures and varying rainfall patterns in 2026, urging stakeholders across sectors to rely on climate data and early warning systems to mitigate risks and support national development.
Festus Keyamo, Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, gave the warning on Tuesday in Abuja during the public presentation of the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) organised by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet).
Keyamo said climate variability and climate change have become defining realities shaping aviation safety, economic planning, food security, infrastructure development and national security.
He noted that extreme weather events such as destructive thunderstorms, heatwaves, droughts, windstorms and sandstorms are increasingly frequent globally, stressing the need for governments to place climate science, data and early warning systems at the centre of national planning.
According to him, the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is prioritising climate adaptation, food security, infrastructure resilience and the protection of lives and livelihoods, adding that timely and accurate weather information is now a strategic tool for governance and development.
“The impact and effect of climate variability
and climate change remains a daily reality of modern times, shaping aviation safety, economic decisions, national security planning, food security, infrastructural development, and the well-being of our people.
“Globally, there are hardly any days without news on extreme weather events like severe and destructive thunderstorms, heatwaves, droughts, windstorms, sandstorms, and many more. These realities demand that governments place climate science and data, as well as early warning systems, at the very heart of national planning,” he said.
Keyamo emphasised that reliable meteorological input remains critical to ensuring safe, efficient and sustainable aviation operations, adding that the ministry will continue to support NiMet in providing quality weather and climate services to Nigerians.
Highlighting key projections in the 2026 SCP, the minister said global climate indicators, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), suggest a predominantly neutral ENSO phase in 2026, which will influence rainfall distribution and temperature patterns across the country.
He explained that while early rains have already been observed in parts of southern Nigeria, this should not be mistaken for the onset of the rainy season, advising farmers and rainfall-dependent sectors to rely on NiMet’s official onset dates for guidance.
The forecast shows that early rainfall onset is expected in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa and Taraba states, while Borno State is projected to experience a delayed onset.
The SCP further predicts early cessation of rainfall in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi and Niger states. However, delayed cessation is expected in Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa and Kaduna states.
Keyamo disclosed that a longer-than-normal rainy season is anticipated in Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe and Taraba states, while parts of Borno, Yobe and Niger states are likely to experience shorter rainy seasons.
He added that most parts of the country are expected to record normal annual rainfall amounts compared to long-term averages, with above-normal rainfall predicted in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom and the Federal Capital Territory. In contrast, parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun states may experience below-normal rainfall.
The forecast also indicates the likelihood of severe dry spells lasting more than 15 days in parts of Oyo and Ogun states between March and May, while moderate dry spells are expected in several southern and central states. Between June and August, severe dry spells lasting up to 21 days are predicted for parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara states.
NiMet also projected that the Little Dry Season, popularly known as the August break, will begin in late July and may be prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo states, lasting between 28 and 40 days. A moderate impact is expected in Ondo, parts of Kwara and Edo states.
“The Little Dry Season (LDS), also known as ‘August Break,’ is predicted to begin by late July and would be severe and prolonged over Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo States. The number of days with little or no
rainfall will range between 28 and 40 days. A moderate LDS effect is expected over Ondo, parts of Kwara and Edo States.
“Both daytime and nighttime temperatures are predicted to be warmer than the long-term average over most parts of the country in January, February, March, and May 2026.
Details of the Prediction and the socioeconomic implications for various sectors of our national economy are contained in the document,” he stated.
The minister further warned that both daytime and nighttime temperatures are expected to be warmer than the long-term average across most parts of the country in January, February, March and May 2026.
Keyamo described climate science as fundamental to sustainable development, cautioning that development efforts not guided by reliable climate data are vulnerable and costly.
“I want to emphasise that climate science is
fundamental to sustainable development. Any developmental effort that is not informed by credible weather and climate knowledge is
vulnerable, costly, and ultimately unsustainable. Nigeria must be at the
forefront of building and adopting systems that can survive and thrive in future climate scenarios,” he added
He called on federal and state government agencies, the private sector, academia, development partners and the media to support the dissemination and application of the SCP document.
The minister reaffirmed the Federal Government’s commitment to strengthening NiMet as a centre of excellence in weather and climate services and a key provider of scientific guidance for national development.
In his remarks, Charles Anosike, Director-General and Chief Executive Officer of NiMet, said the agency remains committed to providing authoritative, science-based climate information to support informed planning and decision-making in Nigeria’s rapidly changing climate.
Anosike, who is also Nigeria’s Permanent Representative with the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), said timely and reliable weather and climate information has become indispensable as climate variability and extreme weather increasingly threaten lives, livelihoods, infrastructure, food security and economic growth.
He disclosed that NiMet has become proactive in adopting emerging technologies, including Artificial Intelligence, to enhance forecasting accuracy and service delivery.
“We have recently set up a team of experts charged with the responsibility of ensuring that the Agency is at the forefront of integrating and operationalising Artificial Intelligence in our forecasting responsibilities,” he said.
